全球视野 | 如果通货膨胀缓减、股市复苏，2023年美国的捐赠趋势将会是什么样？

If you asked most people what would happen in 2022, the vast majority would not have been able to predict the financial roller coaster that was 2022, or that charitable giving would remain strong. From 40-year highs in inflation and increasing prices in Treasury yields, to volatility in the stock market, “uncertainty” could have been the word of the year. If 2022 brought fresh humility, then we should certainly utilize it as we set expectations for 2023. 

如果你问大多数人2022年将发生什么，绝大多数人都无法预测到2022年的金融过山车，也无法预测到慈善捐赠将保持强劲。从40年来最高的通货膨胀率和国债收益率不断上涨的价格，到股市的波动，“不确定性”可能是2022年的关键词。如果2022年让人们变得谨慎，那么我们在为2023年设定期望时，当然应该利用它。 

Despite the volatility of 2022, Charityvest saw its highest volume of Giving Tuesday donations ever, counter to some predictions of softness in the charitable giving market. For people who give purposefully — that is, people for whom charitable giving is a significant financial and personal priority by percentage of income or assets — we believe this year saw increased donations for two reasons. 

尽管2022年的情况不稳定，但Charityvest（一家捐赠人建议基金技术公司）的“捐赠星期二”捐赠量达到了有史以来的最高水平，这与一些预测慈善捐赠市场将会表现疲软背道而驰。对于有目的的捐赠人来说——也就是按照收入或资产的百分比，那些慈善捐赠是他们重要的财务和个人优先事项的人——我们认为，2022年的捐赠有所增加，原因有两个。 

First, purposeful donors consider giving an expression of deep values and partner, or desire to partner, with charities to make a real difference. In a year when charities have deeper needs from inflationary pressures, what economists call a “substitution effect” occurs. Donations become perceived as more valuable, so larger donations occur. 

首先，有目的的捐赠人认为捐赠是一种深刻价值观的表达。他们与慈善机构合作，或希望与之合作，以实现真正的改变。在慈善机构因通胀压力，而有更深层次需求的一年里，经济学家所说的“替代效应”就会发生。捐赠变得更有价值，因此出现了更大的捐赠。 

Second, donors still want to be tax-smart. As wages were strong and equity prices were still quite appreciated over the last five-year period, the tax-savings opportunity alongside giving to charity remained significant. No matter what the year’s volatility looks like, donors make plans to reduce the year’s tax bill. 

其次，捐赠人仍希望在税收方面精打细算。由于在过去的五年中，工资强劲，股票价格仍然相当高。在向慈善机构捐赠的同时，节税的机会仍然很大。无论这一年的波动情况如何，捐赠人都会制定计划，来减少这一年的税单。 

Looking ahead to 2023, what does this imply? Taxes aren’t going anywhere, inflation will slow its growth but continue to place pressure on nonprofit budgets, and a new bipartisan Congress is less likely to pass any sweeping policy changes. Most important, a real possibility for a recession continues to loom. Taking all of this into account, here are my top predictions for major giving trends in 2023. 

展望2023年，这意味着什么？税收不会消失，通货膨胀将减缓其增长，但继续对非营利组织的预算造成压力，而新的美国两党国会不太可能通过任何全面的政策变化。最重要的是，经济衰退的真正可能性继续隐约可见。考虑到所有这些因素，以下是我对2023年主要捐赠趋势的预测。

At some point, the equity markets will stabilize and start to increase once uncertainty peaks. If this happens in 2023 — likely it will — equity prices will become increasingly appreciated. Donating assets as opposed to cash has tremendous tax benefits. Awareness of this among consumers and financial advisers is at an all-time high, and increasing. As the market bounces back, 2023 may be a record year for asset giving, especially equities. 

在某些时候，一旦不确定性达到顶峰，股票市场将稳定下来并开始增加。如果这种情况在2023年发生——很可能会发生——股票价格将越来越升值。相对于现金，捐赠资产有巨大的税收优惠。现在的消费者和财务顾问对这一点有着前所未有的认识，而且这种认识还在增加。随着市场的反弹，2023年可能会成为资产捐赠，特别是股票捐赠的一个创纪录的年份。

Philanthropist MacKenzie Scott has catalyzed a tremendous amount of awareness and buy-in on “trust-based philanthropy” with her unrestricted donations to thousands of nonprofits now totaling over $14B. Trust-based giving is about building funder-grantee relationships that are more power-equal and trusting of nonprofit executives to execute with excellence and transparency. 

慈善家麦肯锡·斯科特通过向数千家非营利组织提供不受限制的捐赠，极大促进了人们对“基于信任的慈善事业”的认识和认同。斯科特的捐赠总额现已超过140亿美元。基于信任的捐赠是关于建立更平等的捐赠人和受赠者之间的关系，并且信任非营利组织的管理人员能够以卓越和透明的方式执行。 

Oversimplifying, it means major donors giving to charities with less strings attached. Beyond the billionaires like Scott, we’ll start to see foundations, large DAFs and even midsize everyday donors in 2023 start to give larger, more unrestricted (though potentially fewer) grants to charities than they already do. 

简而言之，这意味着大额捐赠人向慈善机构捐赠的附加条件的减少。除了像斯科特这样的亿万富翁，我们将在2023年开始看到基金会、大型DAF和甚至中等规模的日常捐赠人，开始向慈善机构提供更大、更不受限制（尽管可能更少）的赠款。

The largest generation in history, the Baby Boomers, are aging, and legacy planning is at the forefront of many families, especially wealthy ones. This will only increase in 2023. 

美国史上人数最多的一代，婴儿潮一代正在老去。遗产规划是许多家庭的首要任务，尤其是富裕家庭。这种情况在2023年只会增加。 

With an estimated $30 trillion expected to be passed down from Boomers to Generation X to Millennials over the next 30 years, we expect giving related to estate/legacy planning to accelerate in 2023. 

据估计，在未来30年内，将有30万亿美元从婴儿潮一代传到X一代，再传到千禧一代。我们预计，与房产/遗产规划有关的捐赠将在2023年加速。

Disconnection and isolation are the problems of our time, especially post-COVID. Many people are searching for meaningful communities, especially where they can express shared values with others. Giving is an expression of values, and it can bring people together around something collectively “bigger.” 

失联和孤立是我们这个时代的问题，特别是在新冠疫情之后。许多人正在寻找有意义的社区，特别是可以与其他人表达共同价值观的地方。捐赠是一种价值观的表达，它可以将人们聚集在一起，共同达成一项“更大的”目标。 

As technology is making it more and more frictionless, collective giving is rising. Collective giving can take many forms. From collaborative funds where donors combine their giving power to maximize influence and impact, to giving circles where donors democratize decision-making, collective philanthropy will continue to increase its role in giving. 

随着科技使之变得越来越流畅，集体捐赠正在兴起。集体捐赠可以采取多种形式：从合作基金，捐赠人结合他们的捐赠力量，以最大限度地提高影响力和影响；到可以使捐赠人决策民主化的捐赠圈。集体慈善事业将继续在捐赠中发挥更大的作用。

As more and more robo-adviser tools arise and Boomers retire, financial advisers are increasingly trying to differentiate their value from alternatives to win over new, young clients. 

随着越来越多的机器人顾问工具的出现，和婴儿潮一代的退休，财务顾问们越来越多地试图将自己的价值与其他选择区分开来，以赢得新的、年轻的客户。 

One area of value-added service is philanthropy. Some advisers are looking to form connections with clients around their life legacy and aiming to help their clients make an impact as a part of their financial goals. It’s a way that advisers can differentiate from robo-advisers and straightforward investment managers. More and more advisers will integrate philanthropic planning tools and know-how into their practice. This will continue to influence the landscape for how giving occurs between donors and charities. 

慈善事业是可以帮助其服务增加价值的一个领域。一些顾问正在试图与客户，围绕着客户的生命遗产建立联系，并旨在帮助客户产生影响力，来作为客户财务目标的一部分。这是顾问们可以区别于机器人顾问和直接投资经理的一种方式。越来越多的顾问将会把慈善规划工具和知识融入他们的实践。这将继续影响捐赠人和慈善机构之间的捐赠方式。 

As mentioned, no one knows exactly what to expect from the economy or the markets. However, these are all trends we’ve seen build over the last few years, despite volatility. Should 2023 be one with less choppy waters, we’ll only see these trends accelerate and a changing philanthropic landscape come into view. 

正如前面提到的，没有人确切地知道经济或市场会带来什么。然而，这几点预测都是我们在过去几年中看到的趋势，尽管存在着波动。如果2023年不那么波涛汹涌，我们只会看到这些趋势加速发展，不断变化的慈善景观将会出现在眼前。